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Brexit: Scenarios & Impact on MNCs

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A comprehensive overview of the five potential Brexit scenarios. Learn more about the impact, likelihood, and velocity of negotiation outcomes, and how to integrate scenarios into your UK plans.

Overview, Table of Contents & Sample Pages below

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Overview

Regardless of its final outcome, the UK’s exit from the European Union will reshape the operating environment for MNCs in the UK. FSG’s base case assumes a transitional deal followed by a free trade agreement with the EU, but a downside scenario of the UK crashing out of the single market is a distinct possibility. MNCs need to understand all the possible outcomes of Brexit to prepare baseline and contingency plans well ahead of the March 2019 deadline to mitigate significant supply chain, logistics, and demand disruptions

What you will learn

  • Detailed Brexit scenarios and actions to take
  • Implications for MNCs: contingency and scenario planning
  • Which scenarios and disruptors will have the greatest impact on the region

 
What you will receive

  • Immediate access to the 57-page PDF report
  • Exclusive email updates covering emerging markets business topics
  • Special discounts on future report purchases

 

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary2
  • About this Report3
  • Contents4
  • Brexit is the New Reality6
  • Foundational Brexit Assumptions7
  • Political Risk is Looming in the UK8
  • New Elections Would Complicate Plans9
  • Section 1: Brexit Scenarios Overview10
  •   Brexit Scenarios Overview11
  •   UK Trade Scenarios 2018-Post-202112
  •   Overview of Trade Scenarios13
  •   Follow Government Statements as Signposts14
  • Section 2: Detailed Scenarios and Recommended Actions15
  •   Scenario 1: Hard Brexit16
  •   Scenario 1: Hard Brexit Timeline17
  •   Scenario 1: Impact and Actions to Take18
  •   Scenario 2: Transition to a FTA19
  •   Scenario 2:Transition to a FTA Timeline20
  •   Scenario 2: Impact and Actions to Take21
  •   Scenario 3: Moderate Brexit (EFTA)22
  •   Scenario 3: Morerate Brexit Timeline 23
  •   Scenario 4: Soft Brexit (EFTA-EEA)24
  •   Scenario 4: Soft Brexit Timeline25
  •   Scenario 3 & 4: Impact & Actions to Take26
  •   Scenario 5: Brexit Reversed (EU Membership)27
  •   Scenario 5: Brexit Reversed Timeline28
  •   Scenario 5: Impact and Actions to Take29
  • Section 3: Implications for MNCs:Contingency and Scenario Planning30
  •   The Business Case for Contingency Planning31
  •   Contingency Planning Methodology32
  •   Contingency Planning Process33
  •   Scenario Planning Processes34
  •   Market Monitoring Processes35
  • About Frontier Strategy Group36
  • Section 4: A. Foundational Assumptions in Detail37
  •   Assumption 1: EU Withdrawal Bill Passes38
  •   EU Withdrawal Bill: Timeline39
  •   Assumption 2: Transitional Deal is Ratified40
  •   Assumption 3: Final Deal is Ratified41
  •   Assumption 4: No Hard Border in Ireland42-43
  •   No Brexit Scenario is Win-Win44
  • Section 5: B. Political Scenarios in Detail45
  •   Political Scenarios for UK 2018-Post-202146
  • Section 6: C. Political Scenarios in Detail47
  •   Consumer Spending Scenarios Summary48
  •   Consumer Prices Scenarios Summary49
  •   Unemployment Scenarios Summary50
  •   Investment Scenarios Summary51
  •   GDP Scenarios Summary52
  •   Exports Scenarios Summmary53
  •   Imports Scenarios Summary54
  •   Government Spending Scenarios Summary55
  •   Exchange Rate Scenarios Summary56-57
  • Sources58

Sample Pages

Brexit: Scenarios & Impacts for MNCs

Brexit: Scenarios & Impacts for MNCs

Brexit: Scenarios & Impacts for MNCs

Frontier Strategy Group is a leading information and advisory services firm that works with over 200 multinational clients operating in emerging markets globally. Our analysts and commentary are regularly featured in outlets such as the Harvard Business Review, Financial Times, CNBC, Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

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