In a climate of uncertainty, Iran’s economy will grow moderately. The risk premium will remain high because of the unpredictability of President Trump’s policies, leading foreign direct investment to decelerate slightly.
Capped oil production, combined with slightly higher oil prices, will minimize significant gains in government revenues, resulting in mild demand growth. Additionally, currency depreciation and inflation will limit a recovery in consumer and B2B demand. Businesses should remain cautious with their targets, and expect a complicated operating and regulatory environment to persist.
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